RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT: JOHN HALL& BRANDEN DUPONT

NYC Youth Crime in Context: Arrest & Recidivism

Key Data Insights

  • In 2024, the youth share of citywide felony and violent felony arrests was the same as it was in 2018.
  • A small proportion of youth felony arrests (~5%) are for the most serious violent felony crimes, where 16-17s have seen an uptick as a share of citywide crime, mostly in the past year (2024-2025). The small proportion of 13–15-year-olds has increased steadily in this category in recent years.
  • Youth recidivism rates for all felony, violent, and serious violent offenses are stable or decreasing. Most youth are reoffending at or below 2018 levels.

Youth arrests in New York City have not driven felony arrest trends in recent years. Since 2018, felony arrests have increased across all age groups, but the largest and most disproportionate gains occurred among adults. As a result, the youth share of felony arrests has remained stable even as overall felony arrests rose.

Recent research by John Jay College’s Research and Evaluation Center has shown that youth under-18 comprise a small and stable share of violent arrests (Butts & Moreno, 2025). Although arrests of people under-18 for felony assault rose from 966 in 2018 to 1,118 in 2024, their share of total arrests declined from 6% to 5%, while the share for adults 25 and older rose from 74% to 80%. For comparison, twenty years ago, youth made up 15% of these arrests.  

National arrest trends mirror this local trend. In 1995, juveniles accounted for 18.3% of all arrests, 18.7% of violent arrests, and 34.7% of property arrests (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2024). By 2015, those shares had dropped to 8.5%, 10.2%, and 14.3%, and by 2018 they hovered around 7-10% across categories, reflecting a shift toward an older age composition. After reaching pandemic‑era lows in 2020, the youth share has increased slightly in recent years, most notably in violent arrests, rising from 7.0% in 2020 to 10.2% in 2024, but remains well below historical levels. 

There is, however, a notable exception highlighted by NYPD gun violence data. Between 2018 and 2024, the NYPD reported that gun arrests of individuals under 18 increased by 136%. During this same period, the number of identified youth shooting suspects rose by 92% and youth shooting victims increased by 81%. While comparable figures for adults are not available, the increase in youth-specific gun incidents suggests a rising exposure to firearms for this group. 

To shed further light on these patterns, this policy brief extends the John Jay REC public time series using New York City Criminal Justice Agency (CJA) arrest records from 2018. Our analysis tracks age composition and 365-day felony recidivism for all felonies, Violent Felony Offenses (VFOs), and a narrow “Most Serious VFOs” subset (assault in the first degree, murder, attempted murder). We use 2018 as the baseline and understand 2021 as a trough with reduced arrest counts coinciding with lockdowns and school closures. Focusing on ages 13–15, 16–17, and adjacent 18–19-year-olds, our goal is to clarify who is driving recent changes in felony arrests and reoffending, and where youth fit within that broader pattern. 

Study design and data sources

This study provides a descriptive, age-disaggregated analysis of arrest composition and 365-day felony recidivism using arrest data from the New York City Criminal Justice Agency for 2018–2025. The CJA dataset includes arrest events, demographic information, and charge details, allowing calculation of age shares and recidivism rates for all felonies, VFOs, and a subset defined for this project as Serious VFOs (assault in the first degree, murder, and attempted murder). Unless otherwise noted, 2018 serves as the baseline year for all comparisons. 

Offense definitions and classification 

CJA arrest events are classified into three mutually exclusive groups: (i) All felonies; (ii) VFOs as defined in New York State statute; and (iii) Serious VFOs, a subset comprising assault in the first degree, murder, and attempted murder charges. When an individual has multiple arrests or charges recorded on the same calendar day, we collapse to a single person‑day record and assign the highest charge classification observed that day. This hierarchy is used consistently for both composition (share‑of‑arrests) and recidivism analyses. 

Age measurement and cohorts 

Age is calculated at the time of arrest from the recorded date of birth. We report results for broad cohorts—under-18, 18–24, 25–44, 45–54, and 55+—and, where relevant, finer youth splits (13–15, 16–17) with an adjacent young‑adult comparison (18–19). Records with missing or invalid ages are excluded from age‑specific denominators; these cases constitute a very small fraction of arrests and do not materially affect comparisons. 

Share‑of‑arrests computation 

For each calendar year (and for 2025 mid-year), we compute the percentage of arrests attributable to each age cohort within each offense group (all felonies, VFOs, Serious VFOs). We report shares to characterize changes in composition over time and pair them with counts to provide scale. Recidivism definition and construction 

Recidivism is defined as a new felony reoffense within 365 days following an initial (or index) arrest. The initial arrest is the person‑day record (after same‑day consolidation) and may fall in any of the three offense groups; we present separate cuts for all‑felony index arrests, VFO index arrests, and Serious VFO index arrests. The event date that reflects recidivism is anchored to the reoffense (incident) date, not the rearrest date, in order to measure behavior rather than enforcement timing; if the reoffense date is missing, we substitute the rearrest date. We follow each index arrest for 365 days; reoffending on day 366 or later are not counted. Index arrests without a full 365‑day follow‑up window (e.g., late‑year arrests in 2024) are excluded from that year’s 365‑day recidivism calculation. The analysis is descriptive and does not adjust for time not at risk (e.g., detention or incarceration) or for adjudication outcomes; results reflect reoffense timing recorded in the administrative data. 

References

This project was a joint analysis by MOCJ and CJA. Analytics by John Hall, graphics by Branden Dupont.

References 

Butts, J. A., & Moreno, G. (2025). Minor Role III: Youth Under Age 18 and New York City Violence (DataBit 2025-1). John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Research & Evaluation Center. https://johnjayrec.nyc/databits/  

Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2024). Arrests by age, United States, 1995–2024 [Dataset]. U.S. Department of Justice; Crime Data Explorer. https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/   

Arrests by Age: Felony, Violent, and Serious Violent Crimes

Adults, especially those aged 35–44, have driven the expansion in felony arrests. Juveniles accounted for 6.5% of felony arrests in 2024, down slightly from 6.8% in 2018. Adults aged 35–44 increased from 18.7% to 23.5% of all felony arrests, the largest gain of any group. Young adults (18–24) lost share despite modest growth in counts. In short, adults, not teens, have disproportionately contributed to the post‑2018 rise in felony arrests. 

The same pattern appears in arrests for VFOs. The under-18 share declined from 11.9% in 2018 to 10.9% in 2024, reaching a low in 2021 before edging up to 12.5% mid-year in 2025. Although under-18 counts increased from 3,185 to 4,297 (+34.9%), total VFO arrests rose faster (26,791 to 39,364, +46.9%), shifting the largest share to adults aged 35–44, who reached 21.4% by 2024, up from 16.3%. Within teenage cohorts, both 16–17 and 18–19-year-olds lost share of total VFOs, while 13–15-year-olds increased in proportion from 4.7% in 2018 to 5.1% in 2024. 

By contrast, the Serious VFO category shows a different pattern. Here, youth gained share while adult shares fell. Under-18 arrests rose from 9.8% in 2018 to 15.6% in 2024, and to 23.3% mid-year in 2025, marking a divergence from the broader downward trend in youth involvement.  

Within this group, every juvenile subset increased in both share and total arrests, as did 18–19-year-olds. Between 2018 and 2024, arrests of 13–15-year-olds for Serious VFOs increased by 182% (44 to 124), arrests of 16–17-year-olds grew by 124% (91 to 204), and arrests of 18–19-year-olds grew by 69% (127 to 215). 

Recidivism by Age: Felony, Violent, Serious Violent Felony Offenses

Youth felony recidivism rose briefly after 2018 but returned to near baseline by 2024. The under-18 rate increased from 33.3% in 2018 to 37.6% in 2020, then declined to 32.3% by 2024. The drop contrasts with a steady climb among adult age groups. Recidivism rose among those aged 30–44 and 55+, indicating that the post-2018 increase in felony reoffending was largely driven by adults rather than juveniles. Youth now reoffend at rates similar to, or below, pre-RTA levels, while adult patterns show gradual but persistent growth.

Within the youth population, trends diverged by age. 16–17‑year‑olds showed the largest improvement, with recidivism falling from 35.8% to 29.1%. 18–19-year-olds remained essentially stable, dropping slightly from 33.6% to 32.1%, while 13–15-year-olds rose from 30.5% to 36.3%.  The chart below highlights a steady reduction among older teens following the implementation of RTA, while younger adolescents experienced modest increases and the adjacent young-adult group leveled off. 

For VFOs, under-18 recidivism in 2024 was nearly unchanged from 2018 (31.9% vs. 30.8%). Within youth cohorts, 16–17-year-olds declined modestly, 18–19-year-olds held flat, and 13–15-year-olds rose slightly. In the narrower Serious VFO group, youth recidivism spiked before and during the pandemic but returned to its baseline by 2024 (25.4% vs. 25.0% in 2018). These data show that while overall youth felony recidivism stabilized, serious violent reoffending remains contained and has not increased compared to 2018.